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What would happen if all jobs were automated?

What would happen if all jobs were automated?
The production problem would be solved and the distribution problem would not — nobody has demonstrated the second half.
Speculative

Full automation separates two things that wage labour currently bundles: producing goods and distributing claims on them. Historically, automation has displaced specific occupations while total employment kept rising, because new categories of work appeared — agriculture fell from most of the workforce to a few per cent in developed economies without producing permanent mass unemployment. Whether that pattern holds when the displaced capability is general rather than specific is genuinely unknown, and is where reasonable economists disagree most sharply. If it does not hold, output could rise while income concentrated in whoever owns the capital, which is a distribution question rather than a scarcity one, and the proposed answers — universal basic income, sovereign wealth funds, shorter hours — are all untested at scale. There is also a large body of evidence that work supplies structure, status and social contact independent of income, and that involuntary unemployment damages health accordingly.

How confident this is

This is speculation. The scenario is far enough outside anything observed that the answer depends heavily on which assumptions you start from — treat it as a thought experiment, not a prediction.

Society

Common questions

What would happen if all jobs were automated?
The production problem would be solved and the distribution problem would not — nobody has demonstrated the second half.
How certain is that?
Speculative. This is speculation. The scenario is far enough outside anything observed that the answer depends heavily on which assumptions you start from — treat it as a thought experiment, not a prediction.

Related pages

Sources

  1. World Bank Open Data — The World Bank (CC BY 4.0)

How these figures are compiled and checked