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What would happen if all the satellites stopped working?

What would happen if all the satellites stopped working?
Weather forecasting would lose most of its accuracy beyond a day or two, along with navigation, timing and most long-range communications.
Reasoned extrapolation

Numerical weather prediction depends overwhelmingly on satellite observation, which supplies the great majority of the data assimilated into forecast models and is the only meaningful source over oceans and sparsely populated regions. Losing it would cut useful forecast range from around a week to roughly a day or two, with severe consequences for aviation, shipping, agriculture and storm warning — hurricane track forecasts in particular have improved by a factor of several since satellite coverage became routine. Navigation and timing would fail as described for GPS, and satellite communications would take out remote connectivity, maritime links and much broadcast distribution, though undersea fibre carries the bulk of international internet traffic and would survive. Earth observation for climate monitoring, deforestation, ice cover and disaster response would stop. The compounding hazard is Kessler syndrome, in which collision debris causes further collisions and makes some orbits unusable for generations, which is the version of this scenario that would not be quickly reversible.

How confident this is

This is a reasoned extrapolation rather than an observation. The mechanism is understood, but the scale of the consequences depends on assumptions that could reasonably be argued differently.

Everyday systems

Common questions

What would happen if all the satellites stopped working?
Weather forecasting would lose most of its accuracy beyond a day or two, along with navigation, timing and most long-range communications.
How certain is that?
Reasoned extrapolation. This is a reasoned extrapolation rather than an observation. The mechanism is understood, but the scale of the consequences depends on assumptions that could reasonably be argued differently.

Related pages

Sources

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — NOAA (Public domain (US Government))

How these figures are compiled and checked