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How many computers are there in the world?

How many computers are there in the world?
roughly 2 billion personal computers in use
A modern phone processor outperforms every computer on Earth combined as of the early 1970s, which is roughly when the personal computer was being invented.

Around 2 billion desktops and laptops are in active use, a figure that has been roughly flat for a decade because tablet and smartphone growth absorbed what would have been PC growth. Annual shipments run at about 250 to 300 million units against an installed base with a typical replacement cycle of five to six years, which is the arithmetic that fixes the total. If you count every device with a general-purpose processor the question dissolves — there are tens of billions of microcontrollers, several in every car and appliance.

How the figure is arrived at

Install-base modelling rather than counting. Take reported quarterly shipments by vendor, apply a survival curve describing how long a machine stays in use before retirement, and integrate. The survival curve is the soft part, and lengthening replacement cycles have repeatedly caused analysts to under-count the installed base.

How confident it is

Low estimate
1,500,000,000
High estimate
2,500,000,000
Spread
1.7× between the bounds

Other things people built counts

Common questions

How many computers are there in the world?
roughly 2 billion personal computers in use
How is that estimated?
Install-base modelling rather than counting. Take reported quarterly shipments by vendor, apply a survival curve describing how long a machine stays in use before retirement, and integrate. The survival curve is the soft part, and lengthening replacement cycles have repeatedly caused analysts to under-count the installed base.

Related pages

Sources

  1. Typical range compiled from manufacturer specifications — At One Place

How these figures are compiled and checked