At One Place

How many planets are there in the galaxy?

How many planets are there in the galaxy?
at least 100 billion — probably more planets than stars
Kepler stared at about 150,000 stars in one patch of sky for four years and found around 2,700 planets. Everything we say about 100 billion planets rests on correcting that sample for what it could not have seen.

Statistically corrected results from the Kepler mission imply that the average star hosts at least one planet, so the Milky Way contains at least as many planets as stars — over 100 billion. Small planets are far more common than large ones, and red dwarfs, the most numerous stars, appear to host compact multi-planet systems routinely. Roughly 6,000 exoplanets have actually been confirmed, so the 100 billion is entirely an extrapolation from a heavily biased sample. Free-floating planets bound to no star may add a comparable number again.

How the figure is arrived at

Transit surveys detect a planet only if its orbit is edge-on to us, which is a few percent of the time for a close orbit and far less for a distant one, and only if the dip in brightness is above the noise. Divide the detections by that geometric and sensitivity probability and you recover the true occurrence rate. Microlensing surveys catch wide orbits that transits miss and support the same conclusion.

How confident it is

Low estimate
100,000,000,000
High estimate
400,000,000,000
Spread
4.0× between the bounds

Other space and the universe counts

Common questions

How many planets are there in the galaxy?
at least 100 billion — probably more planets than stars
How is that estimated?
Transit surveys detect a planet only if its orbit is edge-on to us, which is a few percent of the time for a close orbit and far less for a distant one, and only if the dip in brightness is above the noise. Divide the detections by that geometric and sensitivity probability and you recover the true occurrence rate. Microlensing surveys catch wide orbits that transits miss and support the same conclusion.

Related pages

Sources

  1. NASA — National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Public domain (US Government))

How these figures are compiled and checked