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How much space junk is there?

How much space junk is there?
about 40,000 tracked objects, and over 130 million fragments too small to track
The International Space Station has performed over 30 collision-avoidance manoeuvres in its lifetime, and its shielding is designed to stop debris up to about 1 cm — anything larger has to be dodged.

Around 40,000 objects larger than 10 cm are tracked individually. Below that, the numbers come from models: roughly 1.1 million fragments between 1 and 10 cm, and over 130 million between 1 mm and 1 cm. The small ones matter because orbital closing speeds reach 15 km/s, at which a 1 cm aluminium fragment carries the kinetic energy of a hand grenade. Two events — China's 2007 anti-satellite test and the 2009 Iridium-Cosmos collision — produced a substantial share of the tracked catalogue between them.

How the figure is arrived at

Objects above about 10 cm in low orbit are tracked directly by ground radar. Smaller fragments cannot be seen, so their population is inferred two ways: statistical radar sampling that detects fragments without cataloguing them, and physically counting impact craters on hardware returned from orbit, such as the Space Shuttle windows and retrieved Hubble solar arrays.

How confident it is

Low estimate
36,000
High estimate
45,000
Spread
1.3× between the bounds

Other space and the universe counts

Common questions

How much space junk is there?
about 40,000 tracked objects, and over 130 million fragments too small to track
How is that estimated?
Objects above about 10 cm in low orbit are tracked directly by ground radar. Smaller fragments cannot be seen, so their population is inferred two ways: statistical radar sampling that detects fragments without cataloguing them, and physically counting impact craters on hardware returned from orbit, such as the Space Shuttle windows and retrieved Hubble solar arrays.

Related pages

Sources

  1. NASA — National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Public domain (US Government))

How these figures are compiled and checked